Daily Insight: Monday 25 February 2019: Old Airplanes and Age Limits

News The crash of an Amazon Prime 767 near Houston operated by Atlas Air as flight 3591 last week has once again brought up the question of older airliners. The aircraft in question was 26 years old, having undergone a cargo conversion by IAI-Bedek in Singapore. Several countries have now restricted older aircraft from being registered for commercial service in their countries. The following table illustrates some of them, and the maximum ages for passenger and cargo service: Is it time to consider something similar in the US and Western Europe? Analysis If well maintained, an aircraft can last virtually forever. The question, of course, is the cost of that maintenance and when maintenance requirements render an aircraft economically obsolete. We’ve seen many examples of fleet refurbishments, including Northwest’s refurbishment of older DC-9 models in the 1990s that resulted in extending the lives of already old aircraft. One DC-9-10 set a record for the most cycles ever by a commercial jetliner at over 95,000 cycles. But there are risks of components failing faster in older aircraft, and not all aircraft today are built with the ruggedness of a DC-8 or DC-9, which were heavier airframes than they needed to be. A more modern Airbus or Boeing airframe is more optimized for strength and weight, and not as rugged as in older models. Nonetheless, older aircraft do present higher risks than newer aircraft, as there is naturally greater wear and tear on airframes and engines. But does that merit age limits for aircraft? Insight Were age limits to be imposed immediately, there would be a significant spike in the demand for new aircraft at a time when the supply chain is already having difficulties in keeping up with today’s production rates. An immediate age limitation would be infeasible in the US, which has some of the oldest, yet best maintained, fleets in the world. Age itself is not an inherent problem if adequate regulatory oversight is provided. Nor will younger aircraft eliminate all aircraft accidents, as we’ve seen a few examples in some parts of the world with age restrictions where brand new aircraft have crashed with catastrophic results. In those instances, age could not have been the causal factor. Do age limits provide another level of safety? If so, where is the right place to draw the line? Is it 10 years like Indonesia (where brand new airplanes have crashed), 15 years like China, 20 like South Korea, or no limits like the United States. While the jury remains out, the patchwork quilt of international regulations will no doubt help leasing companies move aircraft around the world, and provides built-in term limits for leases.

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