How is this segment of the market doing? When oil prices spiked, the 50-seater regional jets become uneconomic. Since then, fuel prices dropped dramatically. Has the market come back for these aircraft?
This chart takes data from the Jet Information Services database over time and includes all jets under 100 seats. In 2016, this included 4,990 regional jets. The chart shows that while the percent of the fleet that became inactive has varied over time, the long-range trend has been for more of these aircraft to become inactive. Inactive in this post means “parked”. The aircraft can be brought back into service if required. The next chart shows the number of regional jets removed from service over the past few years.
For Bombardier, the numbers look like this. From the 2Q16 period we see the most inactive fleet is from the CRJ200. But note how the numbers fluctuated. The CRJ200 fleet averages close to 20 years old, so we can expect to see these numbers rise steadily now, regardless of fuel prices.
The decline in regional fleet activity is then a combination of 50-seaters being eclipsed by the market and the loss of aircraft made by OEMs that are no longer in business. The data suggests that these two factors each account for roughly half of the inactivity.
Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.