Replacing Hawaiian’s 717 |

Yesterday, our friends at Visual Approach produced an intriguing analysis of the A220 and E2 as replacements for the 717 at Hawaiian Airlines. The market has changed in a big way since the 717 achieved EIS. There are two options for Hawaiian: the A220 and E2. We want to recognize the analysis by Visual Approach, which got us thinking about this. Only Delta flies the 717 and the current generation. We could look at Delta to see the tradeoff, but that would only compare the aging 717 with the A220 (both models). That would exclude the E2. So, we need to dig deeper. We turned to the Skailark data over the first half of 2023 for ideas. The first table is a census of the active fleet of the 717s, A220s, and E2. The A220-300 is the largest fleet by some margin. At Delta, the A220-100 appears to be the favorite to replace the 717. But Delta is unlikely to grow its A220-100 feet beyond the 45. The focus is now on the -300, like almost every other operator. The A220-100's future seems to be the ACJ market. Perhaps Airbus could even modify this model for a military role as a long-range maritime patrol aircraft. [caption id="attachment_77297" align="aligncenter" width="405"] Source: Skailark.com[/caption] Next, we have a table of daily utilization to consider. This provides an idea of how these aircraft are being used. There is some spread among the aircraft and operators. Looking at Delta, note the A220-100 has an average utilization nearly 62% higher than the 717. Interestingly, Hawaiian's 717s operate similarly to those at Delta. [caption id="attachment_77299" align="aligncenter" width="415"] Source: Skailark.com[/caption] We get the following table when calculating the average number of daily flights over the period. The red arrow highlights the situation at Hawaiian; the 717s do about double the number of daily flights. This data point highlights a crucial decision issue for Hawaiian. [caption id="attachment_77300" align="aligncenter" width="411"] Source: Skailark.com[/caption] Hawaiian Airlines needs a workhorse where the primary issue is daily cycles. Looking at the A220 and E2 options, one might consider the A220-100 and E190-E2 as the two to focus on. These new models have a significant range increase over the 717. The image below uses Honolulu as the departure point and shows the maximum range of the two options to replace the 717. [caption id="attachment_77303" align="aligncenter" width="535"] Source: Great Circle Map[/caption] How important is the range? To Hawaiian, it is very important. The evidence is the airline's long-range fleet of A330-200s and their newest 787-9. The airline has also deployed the A321neo to good effect. Whereas the average range of the 717 is 292 miles, the E190-E2 averages 541 (+85.3%), and the A220-100 averages 684 (+134.3%). For Hawaiian, these new aircraft offer something similar to the A321 - excellent fuel burn and long reach. Both can reach the US west coast, which is a key market for the airline. The A220-100 can reach very far. Both new models use the Pratt & Whitney GTF, which the airline also has on its A321s. Both new models have an equivalent fuel burn, 42.3% better than the 717. No matter which aircraft Hawaiian selects, the outcome is that the replacement offers vastly better and different capabilities. We assume that both OEMs are offering the airline sharp pricing. What are the tradeoffs the airline faces? As we see it, the focus should be: Reliability: daily inter-island cycles are taxing. Delta operates its 717s and A220s on four daily flights. Swiss does four daily flights on the A220 and gets five out of its E2 fleet. Lower fuel burn is great, but reliability trumps everything. Engines: The GTF is suffering a spate of issues. At this writing, the A220 and E2 fleets have not been hit by the latest powder problem. Hawaiian has seen its A321 fleet impacted. But since both replacements use the same engine, there's no option. Airbus is deep into the airline via the A220 and A330s. Moreover, the airline is moving to A330 freighter services. The large pilot pool helps Airbus. But any hold on the airline is less firm than it was - the 787-9 is the future long-range model at Hawaiian. We think this reflects an opening for Embraer. What can Embraer bring to the deal to swing a decision in its favor?

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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