With the T-100 updated, we have updated our models. Subscribers can check these to see how things have evolved through this tumultuous year.
Here’s a screenshot from one of the models that encapsulates the year from an airline perspective rather well. The data is updated through August, giving us a third-quarter YTD view.
Subscribers can select the airlines to see how each airline is moving through the crisis. As a group, these airlines are way off historic trendlines. Forecasts are built on trends and we can see that breakdown spectacularly in 2020.
US airlines are, in traffic terms, back to pre-1995. To win back that traffic is going to take more than a vaccine.
Load factors are a crucial measure for profitability and typically the magic number has been ~65% for breakeven. Not only are we well below that number, but the drop from the highly profitable 2019 has been especially painful.