With the T-100 updated, we have updated our models. Subscribers can check these to see how things have evolved through this tumultuous year.

Here’s a screenshot from one of the models that encapsulates the year from an airline perspective rather well. The data is updated through August, giving us a third-quarter YTD view.

Subscribers can select the airlines to see how each airline is moving through the crisis.  As a group, these airlines are way off historic trendlines. Forecasts are built on trends and we can see that breakdown spectacularly in 2020.

US airlines are, in terms, back to pre-1995.  To win back that traffic is going to take more than a .

Load factors are a crucial measure for and typically the magic number has been ~65% for breakeven.  Not only are we well below that number, but the drop from the highly profitable 2019 has been especially painful.

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