With the T-100 updated, we have updated our models. Subscribers can check these to see how things have evolved through this tumultuous year.
Here’s a screenshot from one of the models that encapsulates the year from an airline perspective rather well. The data is updated through August, giving us a third-quarter YTD view.
Subscribers can select the airlines to see how each airline is moving through the crisis. As a group, these airlines are way off historic trendlines. Forecasts are built on trends and we can see that breakdown spectacularly in 2020.
US airlines are, in traffic terms, back to pre-1995. To win back that traffic is going to take more than a vaccine.
Load factors are a crucial measure for profitability and typically the magic number has been ~65% for breakeven. Not only are we well below that number, but the drop from the highly profitable 2019 has been especially painful.
Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.