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February 23, 2024
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Our travel schedule has been a bit hectic this month, so this update is late.  Next week the show starts, so we thought we’d better get this done today.

Airlines have been seeing relatively more transactions this year than last.  No doubt the combination of rising fuel prices and delayed deliveries are playing major roles.  Overall, YTD, the market has seen about 5% fewer transactions in 2018 compared to 2017.

Among the OEMs, Airbus and Boeing continue to dominate, with Airbus’ 2018 numbers ahead of last year primarily because of Virgin America moving into Alaska. Bombardier and Embraer are both still behind last year’s numbers.

Single aisles remain the biggest segment. Boeing’s MAX program is humming along even as NG transactions start to decline.  Airbus’ A320neo program is thought to be so “far behind” on deliveries. Yet year-to-date that Airbus has delivered 113 of its new aircraft compared to 100 for Boeing‘s equivalent.  So it’s not all bad news at Airbus.  If the engine makers get caught up, both OEMs will deliver even better.

Looking at the widebody transactions, note the 777-300ER and A330 have seen slowdowns.  The 787-9 is the bright spot.  Airbus is slightly better on A350-900s.  The A350-1000 are now starting to enter the market and the same for the 787-10.

For the “small duopoly” things are being reported this way for the last time. As of July 1, there is no C Series program.  Bombardier saw declines in its CRJ transactions. Embraer saw the same in its E-Jets.  The first E2 have been delivered and we can expect to see more of these going forward.  In future in our charts, we will rename the C Series the A220 and move that data into the Airbus/Boeing single aisle.

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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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