A Commercial Aviation Consultancy

COMAC

15072309024918COMAC and CFM International celebrated delivery of the first LEAP-1C engine for the C919 prototype yesterday.  The second Leap-1C engine is expected to be delivered to COMAC in August.

The first C919 prototype is in final assembly in Shanghai. The fuselage has been completed and mobile systems are being installed.  But first flight had been postponed to 1H16. Deliveries are scheduled for 2018 but we anticipate slipping to closer to 2020.

Take a look at this chart of the 2014 in service passenger airliner fleet.  In our view this provides a very useful breakdown of the OEMs by seat segment.  It also highlights some opportunities for new business. Continue reading

The much delayed ARJ has started test flights for launch customer Chengdu Airlines. The first two deliveries are set occur in April or May. This will be the first Chinese attempt at offering a regional airliner.

2014-12-30_13-02-31

So how does their offering compare to competitive products that exist today?

2015-03-18_15-17-49The Chinese have publicly stated that they did not expect to produce a world-beating aircraft out of the box, and that the ARJ-21 was to be a learning experience. But they did expect to make an aircraft that could be competitive, given the capital cost differential, for Chinese airlines, which they have done.

The table above shows the seating is virtually identical in a typical two-class configuration. But then the other numbers come into play – the ARJ is much heavier; 16% more than the CRJ and 14.4% heavier than the E-175. This causes an interesting requirement – all three use various… Continue reading

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