AirInsight is pleased to announce it has published two in-depth reports on the leading aircraft in the 100-150 seat segment.
Our assessment is that Bombardier and Embraer will essentially split ~80% of the market for approximately 4,000 aircraft. We believe Airbus and Boeing will only together retain ~20% share over the next 20 years in this segment. This volume should ensure both small OEMs cover their breakeven numbers. Which should also provide both firms with excellent financial platforms to grow aircraft offerings. For Bombardier, this growth likely means a CS500 to get to a three member family. For Embraer, with a three family solution from 78 seats to 130 seats, management seems satisfied. But knowledge from developing the KC-390 will be useful for the company’s next programs. Embraer has a track record of driving IP from every program into each succeeding program.
We have… Continue reading
Russia’s next big aircraft program after the SuperJet is the mid-sized MC-21. Seating up to 211, the MC-21 is seen as a competitor to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737. Although a technically promising aircraft, market realities make the program hard to move forward.
It seems the development cost of the program is similar to that of western programs. But the reality of Russian/Western politics is making the financials a lot more difficult to work out. UAC, and its IRKUT subsidiary, are becoming creative.
Russian business daily Vedomosti reports that the Russian Ministry of Commerce and UAC, together with leasing companies, and the Russian Ministry of Economic Development are discussing government support for the MC-21 program. They would commit 20bn Rub ($320m at current rates) until 2020 according to three different sources. But this scheme depends on many variables such as the commercial plan and leasing… Continue reading
In the single aisle market the dominance of Airbus and Boeing is total. Take a look at this chart.
COMAC representatives have conceded that the first flight of the C919, which was scheduled to be completed this year, will likely not fly until April 2017. This schedule slippage will likely add another three to six months to the program development timeline, which was scheduled for the first half of 2019. The program status is that the first test aircraft has been completed, but the challenge is to complete the ground testing of a long list of requirements before flying it.
This latest delay moves the program schedule further to the right, now about three years later than originally scheduled. If this schedule holds, it will be six years better than COMAC’s first aircraft, the ARJ-21, which ended up nine years behind schedule.
COMAC has set a goal to account for 5% of the domestic market by 2020. It currently has 517 orders for the C919… Continue reading