Yesterday Airbus published their latest numbers and here is our updated O&D model.

  • No orders in February.  Our model history goes back to 2000, and this has not happened before during the period. It looks like being a bad year for order with the current virus situation impacting, and airlines parking aircraft.
  • Egyptair is the current YTD customer taking most deliveries. We expect deliveries to slow as airlines start to pile up excess capacity from the virus impact.  Notice on Page 5 the YTD drop for Asia.
  • When the virus impact starts to wane, and it will, we expect to see some fleet retirements as new deliveries come back on stream as airlines have to add back capacity.
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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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