Yesterday Airbus published their latest numbers and here is our updated O&D model.

  • No orders in February.  Our model history goes back to 2000, and this has not happened before during the period. It looks like being a bad year for order with the current virus situation impacting, and airlines parking aircraft.
  • Egyptair is the current YTD customer taking most deliveries. We expect deliveries to slow as airlines start to pile up excess capacity from the virus impact.  Notice on Page 5 the YTD drop for Asia.
  • When the virus impact starts to wane, and it will, we expect to see some fleet retirements as new deliveries come back on stream as airlines have to add back capacity.
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