Airbus has an FAL in Tianjin, which gives the OEM access to one of the world's fastest-growing travel markets. Last March, this FAL delivered its first A321neo. Airbus points out: "Inaugurated in 2008, the FAL in Tianjin was the first Airbus commercial aircraft assembly line outside Europe. In the same year, the first aircraft sections arrived on site. Since its first A320 delivery in 2009, Airbus’ FAL in Tianjin has delivered more than 600 aircraft over its 14 years in operation." Having FALs in China, Germany, France, and the US is a powerful marketing tool Airbus deploys during these high-demand days. Airbus has derisked its production with so many sites, even though this has made production much more complex. The complexity is offset by having more capacity, and it looks like the right decision. Like every tradeoff, the choice to spread out production looks smart for now. Circumstances change, and the choice may one day be faulty. For example, if China becomes belligerent towards the West, Airbus' Tianjin FAL runs into trouble. Two charts show how these FALs impact Airbus single-aisle production rates. We use monthly delivery data with previous registrations as a guide to where the aircraft is initially registered. The registration codes used are B=China, C=Canada, F=France, and D=Germany. We tracked A320NEO family and A220 model deliveries. [caption id="attachment_84090" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Delivery rates shown are estimates based on the data. For context, the following chart shows single-aisle transactions for Airbus and Boeing. [caption id="attachment_84092" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] But let's return to the Airbus single-aisle FAL rates. The following chart illustrates the rates for each FAL. Our timeline here starts in 2019. [caption id="attachment_84093" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] As the A321neo took off, the Hamburg FAL saw a steady share growth rate. The balance will move again as the Toulouse FAL A321 FAL comes online. The Montreal FAL is A220-focused and relatively tiny. The Tianjin FAL had a slow 2022 but saw relatively high rates in some months. A note on the F transactions. Mobile Alabama aircraft reproduced under French registrations. Therefore, the blue rates above reflect two FALs, Toulouse and Mobile. Deliveries (A320 family) to US customers come from Europe (France and Germany) or Mobile. The A220 models, even when assembled in Mobile, have a C registration. Tracking is complicated. The charts indicate that the European FALs are the most important by an order of magnitude, which is no surprise. We have two tables to attempt to distill the Mobile rate. The first table lists the top ten markets for Airbus single-aisle deliveries. [caption id="attachment_84096" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Breaking out the US deliveries by model, we have the following. [caption id="attachment_84097" align="aligncenter" width="320"] AirInsight[/caption] After separating deliveries to US-based customers, we get the following: [caption id="attachment_84099" align="aligncenter" width="473"] AirInsight[/caption] Having taken something of a winding path through the data, here is our estimate for these four FALs. [caption id="attachment_84101" align="aligncenter" width="387"] AirInsight[/caption]
