Considering the “newness” of the eVTOL market, it is quite amazing that there has been a surge of interest.  Using January 2020 as our start point, we have been tracking commitments (as we are defining orders for now) and options.  Here’s our scorecard.

  • Click on any data point to drill down
  • We expect to keep this scorecard updated regularly as new deals are announced
  • The list includes passenger and freighter versions.
  • If are missing a deal, please let us know

As the scorecard shows, Embraer’s Eve is way ahead.  This is not a surprise – commercial aviation is highly risk-averse.  If you’re going to spend big, you are most likely going to back the OEM with the highest credibility for certification and budget being on time and on budget.  Among these names, there’s only one.

Another important note here is the customer names.  Airlines have opted for these aircraft in a big way.  As have lessors.  These two segments provide critical credibility.  Avolon has already placed its entire order – yes all 500.

TAC has an excellent piece on changes at the FAA This creates uncertainty and that is not what commercial aviation appreciates.  This, in our view, brings us back to the important issue:  which OEM has a demonstrated history of commercial aircraft certification?  As a new industry, there are going to be risks.  We are in some way, back in the early 1920s of the aircraft industry.  Lots of OEMs, lots of clever ideas, and novel thinking.  Reality has a way of thinning out the OEMs.  We could see the same here. 

While Embraer’s great start is not a surprise, the absence of a brand name like Bombardier is.  The latter has a fine aerospace reputation and Canada has a rich aviation history.  Will Bombardier sit out the early phase and, perhaps, step in and buy a fledgling OEM later? (a la Canadair)

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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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