Getting a handle on the GTF population |

How big is the GTF problem? Pratt & Whitney is at pains to admit the issue in terms of cost and has sent a signal they believe they have the issue defined and a solution in place. They also believe the proposed fix covers the power issue plaguing the engine. What do we know about the GTF population? Here is a table based on ch-Aviation's fleet data that lists these engines' locations by aircraft type. The problem is mainly Airbus-focused, and to date, P&W has not discussed the issue on the A220 or E2. Of the ~1,700 aircraft (2,400 engines), 81% are active. Another 7% are in maintenance. That helps define the size of the problem in terms of volume. What about other data points to further help paint a picture? Here's what we know about the A220 fleet. The top seven customers account for 80% of the fleet. Four of the seven have access to first-class internal MRO resources. That should mean that as soon as they get the new fan, these operators can fix the engines themselves. Moreover, they will also have a pool of spare engines. We estimate that for A220, the GTF challenges are manageable. Next up is the E2 fleet. There is a much smaller population - once again, Embraer benefits from being the last to the GTF. KLM has parked its E2 fleet without explaining anything. Only last week they took delivery of another one. Porter's fleet is also new. Helvetic has the oldest aircraft on the list - but has access to Lufthansa Technik, a first-class MRO. We also estimate the E2 fleet is unlikely to present a big problem for P&W. Now for the big kahuna, the A320 family. There are 1.361 aircraft and 2,726 engines. The top 21 customers account for 75% of the fleet and must fix 2,032 engines. The table below lists these operators. As noted above, the crucial factor here is access to internal or group MRO resources. The first three do not have this and will have to go to the market - and they have 576 engines ending repair. Awkard demand for MRO resources is about to start, and P&W will pay for this. We estimate that of the 2,302 engines listed, only 294 (14.5%) can access internal MRO resources. So, this will be the pain point for P&W and its customers. A key data point is how old the engines are - the older ones must be inspected first. RTX clarified on their call yesterday that the new deliveries have the problem fixed because of angle scans. Let's assume that P&W focuses on engines older than three years. The table lists these engines and their operators. The table lists 1,456 engines. We estimate that only 160 engines (11%) can access internal MRO resources that shorten and hasten the repair once the new parts arrive. That leaves us with 1,296 engines that will be the toughest to fix. MRO shops the world over are going to have a field day. P&W's own resources are going to be stretched. The supply chain making the fans is going to run 24/7. Well, what can you do? Here's a wrinkle to make you squirm. Remember, CFM also has a contamination problem with the LEAP. What if CFM runs into the same issue in terms of scale? We shared some thoughts on this in July.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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