Global Regulators Challenge FAA on MAX Safety Oversight

News The meeting today between the FAA and international regulators in Dallas is likely to be contentious, with questions regarding the FAA certification process and oversight of Boeing, Boeing’s design philosophy for the aircraft, and how in an age of mandated redundancy for flight critical systems, the aircraft was certified with an anti-stall software system reliant on only one sensor. Joining the list of critics are European pilots. The European Cockpit Association is calling for a complete review of the certification of the 737MAX, a process that could extend the grounding of the aircraft by several months. Yesterday, the Acting Administrator of the FAA, Dan Ewell, said “it takes as long as it takes. The 737 MAX will fly again when we have gone through all of the necessary analysis to determine that it is safe to do so. If it takes a year to find everything we need to give us confidence to lift the order, then so be it. I’m not tied to a timeline.” Today, after the meeting, he hinted that airlines do not need to make more changes to their schedules, suggesting an FAA authorization to return the aircraft to service within a month or two. Analysis The stories today don’t suggest an expedited return to service for the MAX in Europe, which is what the airlines want. There will likely be a time difference between the US FAA and international regulators over the 737MAX re-certification and re-entry into service. The depth of the reviews required to ensure that no other systems like MCAS, which Boeing failed to disclose to airlines and pilots, exist and that nothing else was overlooked, could potentially take 4-6 months. Clearly, the airplane was certified with a system that would be considered by virtually all aviation experts to be flawed, relying on only one sensor and having the strength to trim the airplane with more force than designed. The question being asked is this the only system of its kind, and has Boeing been transparent with regulatory authorities in other areas. Insight When trust is lost, people need reassurance and verification. We are at that point with both Boeing and the FAA today. International regulators and European pilots no longer trust the decisions made by the FAA, and want an additional review of the certification of the airplane. Such a review could extend the grounding of the aircraft another 4-6 months, and we could be looking at a fourth quarter return to service for the MAX at the earliest in Europe, even with a late summer return to service in the US. After all, if the pilots union doesn’t get what they want, they could refuse to fly the airplane until they do, and earlier FAA re-certification wouldn’t matter in a labor dispute. The FAA is in a difficult position, knowing that they missed a key risk point during the certification process. They need to assure international regulators that the MCAS flaw is the only thing they missed - but that it difficult given the current reporting structure where communications from Authorized Representatives is channeled through Boeing management. From everything we’re hearing, international regulators will want to dig deeper into the certification of the MAX, and the FAA could lose face internationally if it doesn’t agree to delay the return of the MAX to enable such a review, or jointly conduct it with EASA and other agencies. Acting FAA Administrator Dan Ewell stated “we will be first, regardless, and if the rest of the world agrees with our analysis…that is the goal.” But what happens when they don't? Will US registered MAX aircraft be prohibited from operating in Canada unless pilots have simulator training? Will the US stop 400 hour co-captains out of Lufthansa's school from flying right seat into the US? The system is based on mutual trust, which has now been broken. It sounds to us as if the rest of the world may not go along with the FAA. Trust, but verify. This situation reflects poorly on both Boeing and the FAA, each of whom is partially responsible for a flawed system being aboard the MAX. While it never should have happened, it did, and the consequences are coming home to roost. The proverbial can of worms has just been opened.

No results