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Commercial Aviation Analysts

Sukhoi civil Aircraft produced this PR today:

Sukhoi Civil Aircraft (SCA) has completed repair work on six  (of 11) Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ100) for Interjet airline.

Technical teams from SCA were sent to Mexico as part of SCA’s after-sales support service for Interjet’s Sukhoi Superject 100. Thanks to the work done by SCA and Interjet specialists, all six aircraft resumed operations in the first week of January.  

Twenty-two SCA technical specialists were sent to Mexico for the warranty maintenance work. The team was made up of specialists with extensive experience in aircraft production and maintenance.

The troubleshooting procedure was agreed to with the Russian aviation authorities (Federal Air Transport Agency) and carried out under the control of the Mexican aviation authorities (DGAC).

Interjet is one of the world’s largest operators of SSJ100 aircraft and has been flying the model since 2013. Interjet’s SSJ100 technical dispatch reliability is one of the highest among the… Continue reading

Qatar Airways is in the news again and, once again, its about Airbus. The airline plans to swap its order for up to 80 A320neos for A321neos.  “We are going to take all A321s, there will be no more A320s,” CEO Akbar Al Baker told reporters in Doha.

The airline has rejected four A320neo deliveries to date.  The engines for the A321s have not been selected – the rejected A320neos have Pratt & Whitney GTFs.  The airline’s CEO expressed dissatisfaction with the engines and this is the reason rejecting the four A320neos.  Mr al-Baker has threatened to take CFM LEAP engines instead.

The quote above bears some consideration – what does “all” actually mean?  The original order was for up to 80 aircraft.  Will “all” include replacement A321neos for the rejected four A320neos?  Mr al-Baker is a consummate communicator – he plays the public messaging process better than any other… Continue reading

In case you did not see this yet, you might want to check on this link for our weekly analyst review.

This week, our colleagues at AIR take a simple look at three issues that are likely to define the industry in 2017;  in short its really all about the supply chain and its ability to withstand pressure from OEMs and the impact of  financial, political and economic variables.   2017 is likely to be a white swan(s) year.  There are also significant strategic decisions around the corner that will be impacted by the sales performances of key programs in 2017.

India is a market that has been attractive for OEMs for many years.  The following two charts explain why.  The first chart shows how strongly the domestic air travel market has grown.  Typically, passenger traffic doubles every 15 years – in India between 1995 and 2010 traffic grew by four times.  If we look back 15 years from 2015, traffic has grown by over fives what it was.

Just to provide some perspective – India’s railway network is the world’s fourth largest and in 2014 transported 8.4 billion passengers. For every Indian domestic air passenger in 2014, 138 passengers took a train. Continue reading

AirInsight is expanding, and has introduced a new business unit, AirInsightResearch.  AIR is a premium aerospace & defense boutique analysis and consulting group.  Our team’s innovative strategies and market intelligence have provided substantial strategic advantage for our clients for well over a decade.

We invite you to visit our site at www.airinsightresearch.com for further details. Continue reading

We have completed the 2016 EFB survey and added this data to the EFB survey data set, starting with 2012.  The current Excel sheet provides 293 rows by 228 columns of data.  If you are interested in acquiring this excel data, please email us.

The excitement of trading with Iran’s airlines is bringing OEMs some uncertainty.  This is going to be unwelcome to suppliers who dislike adding uncertainty to an already uncertain industry.

Let’s start with Superjet. News from Iran now suggests the SSJ is not going to be welcomed in Iran.  The Association of Iranian Airlines is the source, and to see the comment from that source as saying “the plane is not well-known to Iranian airline companies” is fatuous. Virtually every modern commercial aircraft is unknown to Iran’s airlines and the SSJ issue has been fixed. Then to ascribe concern about the recent technical fix after saying as recently as December 10th that Iranian airlines were interested in buying the SSJ is perplexing.

Meanwhile ATR is about to sign a finalize its deal with Iran this week and the first aircraft looks ready for delivery.  The first Iran Air A321 is to… Continue reading

Back in the heyday of the order boom, as recently as 2015, the talk was of Airbus and Boeing going to single aisle monthly production rate 60.  Airbus promised production monthly rates at 50 from 2017.  Then it went to rate 60 by 2019.   Meanwhile Boeing said it would accelerate monthly production to rate 52 in 2018.

Are these production rate plans viable as we enter 2017? We’d say no.  Look at the following chart.  It is true that both OEMs have increased production steadily over many years.  Even though the 2016 data is only through November, we estimate production for both at 490 for the year.  This essentially flat compared to 2015.  To justify the growth to rate 50 means orders must spike to a level that justifies more stress on the supply chain.

Welcome to AirInsight Premium content.… Continue reading

Last Wednesday it happened in Indonesia. Citilink, owned by Garuda, initially denied the pilot was drunk. Later Citilink’s president and the airline’s production director resigned and the pilot was fired.

Then on Saturday in Canada, a pilot at Sunwing was so drunk he was found unconscious on the flight deck! When the co-pilot arrived he found the pilot drunk while doing the preflight. The co-pilot notified the airline, and when the gate crew boarded the aircraft, they found the pilot slumped in his seat. Calgary police were called and the pilot was arrested.  So drunk was he that two hours after being taken into custody, he was still three times over the legal limit.

For these two gents their flying career in the airline business is likely to be curtailed.  The industry has many checks and balances to ensure safe travel.  Of course the security folks at the airport in… Continue reading

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