Premium #310 – The widebody market dependence on the ME3

There was an economic slowdown for the Middle East Three (Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways or ME3) in 2016, after multiple years of substantial growth in revenues, yields, load factors, and profitability.  Whether due to a lack of oil-related business traffic as oil prices went south, or the lack of political stability the Middle East having a carry-over effect on the relatively safe parts of the UAE, yields and profitability have fallen for the ME3 in the second half of 2016, with revenues not keeping up with growth in traffic.

While the ME3 are still growing, have they reached the point of diminishing returns from that capacity growth?  The short term evidence, at least for two of the ME3, is beginning to point in that direction.