Should Embraer Join the Airbus-Boeing Duopoly? |

The Airbus-Boeing duopoly is neither balanced nor healthy for the aviation industry. Since the McDonnell-Douglas merger into Boeing, there have been only two viable competitors in the commercial aircraft market. Today, one of those companies is failing across all its product lines, and airlines would seek a third participant if one were available.But who is positioned to make a move in the marketplace? COMAC in China is one viable candidate, but it is very slow-moving. The C919 is not quite competitive with the A320neo and 737MAX. As this is their first competitive aircraft, the next generation of aircraft will determine how well COMAC will compete. Given China’s long-term objectives and patience, this could take until 2050.Embraer is the only viable candidate to join the duopoly, at least in narrow-body aircraft. This is a company with a strong track record for on-time and on-budget aircraft development, a company that already builds regional and crossover jets in volume, and a company with a strong reputation for safety and quality. Could Brazil’s gem become the company that turns the duopoly into an oligopoly? We believe that Embraer needs to step up and join Boeing and Airbus in the commercial market for several reasons. First, strong demand for air travel will continue, and the market is large enough to support three competitors. Second, Embraer has a strong track record for innovation and the ability to design and build aircraft on time and on budget, something Boeing has recently been unable to accomplish. Third, Embraer has a global infrastructure for service and support that can provide a basis for future growth. Fourth, Embraer works with the major players in the industry, including Pratt & Whitney for the GTF engine and many of the same suppliers used by Boeing and Airbus. Fifth, Embraer has a strong safety record and the credibility to deliver a next-generation narrow-body aircraft. It also developed and built the C-390, a large aircraft. The two impediments are investment capital and the potential for changes in aircraft propulsion. Both of those are surmountable. An Embraer entry into the narrow-body market would attract a positive response from airlines and leasing companies, demonstrating that a strong market exists for a new technology aircraft, which would aid a capital raise. An innovative design that could work with multiple propulsion technologies will be a requirement for all three OEMs moving forward. Embraer’s capabilities in design would enable it to design an aircraft that has propulsion flexibility looking forward while beginning with the next generation of conventional engines.The market needs a new narrow-body aircraft family with a seating capacity of 170-240 passengers. With the E2 series, Embraer designed three different wings for three aircraft to optimize performance, something neither Boeing nor Airbus did for their narrow-body families. Embraer is not afraid to leverage its engineering excellence in design. The Bottom LineThe additional quality problems emerging this week at Boeing indicate serious unsolved cultural and managerial problems. Boeing has been building the 737 for 57 years and still has problems getting it right. That is unacceptable, and a new competitor is needed. With its technical skills, experience, and market presence, Embraer is the only viable solution in the near term.Ironically, Boeing’s failure to acquire Embraer may result in a strong new competitor that could take a significant share of the narrow-body market with a new product. We urge Embraer to consider moving upmarket and joining the duopoly with large narrow-body aircraft.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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