With the results from Airbus out yesterday, there have been a series of stories claiming the problem with the A320neo family program is engine related, and invariably, its P&W’s fault.  What does the data suggest?

Airbus has over 6,000 of these aircraft on order from 99 customers.  Using data from Planespotters.net, we can see that production to date is close to 400.  While its true this, not official Airbus data, the OEM does not release this information. (We asked)

In our view, the Planespotters.net data looks reasonable as a proxy. The table lists customer aircraft.

Would Airbus like their orders delivered on time? Of course!  But the supply chain is being hammered and engines are right up there to blame.

With that said, two-thirds of the neo fleet is active.  Moreover, according to Airbus numbers through the 1Q18 they delivered 30 A320/1neos. Compare this to 161 for all of 2017, so with engine hiccups, Airbus is at a projected 120 for the year. However, Airbus claims that it will deliver as planned for 2018.  The engine hiccups may be over before long.

Breaking down the production numbers by engine types we get the following.  The numbers suggest that the GTF powered aircraft on order are about two-thirds of the outstanding aircraft.  P&W is a bigger problem of the two engine OEMs. But it’s not alone.

Once again, we use a proxy for this. Bloomberg reported that Norwegian’s MAX deliveries are running late because of engines and these are the LEAP.

Bottom Line
Engines are an issue for both Airbus and Boeing.

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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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