As we enter summer travel season in the US, you might want to prepare for flight delays. Gate agents do their best but generally lack the information you need. You want to know why your flight is delayed because, by now, you know that reason significantly impacts any fix the airline can undertake.
To explain delays, we need to take you through a lot of data and charts.
In fairness to airlines, delays cost a lot. Please take a look at our estimate of what a delay minute costs. They don’t want a delay any more than you do.
It is not a comforting data point, but the US industry average for delayed arrivals is ~20%. We focus on delayed arrivals because, in the end, that’s the metric we think passengers care about most. (all other things being equal)
Delays vary by time of day and season. Airline schedules typically fall apart as the day goes on. For the best on-time arrival, take the earliest flight you can.
Use our flight planner below to see how times vary by time of day.
If we look at the season trends, we see this. The upper chart shows the average monthly delayed arrival minutes for several years. The 15-minute dotted line represents the leeway DoT gives airlines to be “on time.” As you can see, that level is frequently breached.
The lower chart lists the percentage of flights arriving 15 minutes or more late. The period average arrival delay is 17%. Excluding 2020 and 2021, when the industry weathered the pandemic, the industry average is 20%,
Either way, there are many delayed arrivals. Notice that these delays peak during vacation periods. As traffic peaks, the system seems to groan under the pressure. In 2019, the US system averaged 2.3 million daily passengers, but by 2023, the average is closer to 2.5 million. The trend shows that the number keeps rising.
Here is a summary of the reasons airlines report delayed flights. Click on the chart to enlarge it for better viewing.
The data shows that airlines are the primary reason your flight is delayed. The two blue segments are by far the largest. It might be below 2% of flights, but delays are expensive and, apparently, self-inflicted.
Cancellations
A word about flight cancellations: the chart shows an industry average of 1.8%.
But there’s a lot of information behind that average. So here is a quick tour through that information.
The greener, the better. The 2024 red for Alaska is the impact of the MAX 9 grounding. As the table illustrates, cancellations are not spread evenly. Here’s another view on cancellations, this time by aircraft OEM.
Boeing aircraft have the fewest cancellations, while regional aircraft have the most.