Here’s the updated model.

  • Page 1 highlights that Delta and United are the big YTD customers
  • In terms of orders, the A220 is now #3.
    • This is pretty amazing – it begs the question if Boeing had bought the C series rather than do that ITC complaint.
    • While looking at the A220, the -100’s future is as an ACJ. The market wants the -300 and -500
  • Page 3 illustrates how Airbus kept deliveries steady in the past. The pandemic played havoc with that stability.  Customers reacted (overreacted?) and Airbus had to upset its supply chain. Now customers are (potentially) overreacting again and the supply chain is getting hammered.
  • YTD orders are 73% for the A321neo, up from 2748% in 2019. The implications are obvious.
  • YTD deliveries show the A321neo at 32% – nearly one-third. Once again the market signal about MoM is in plain sight.
  • For deliveries, Indigo caught up with Delta YTD at 29.

Airbus may be struggling with its supply chain, but that is an industry-wide problem.  The market still wants what Airbus has to offer; A321s and A220s.  How unfortunate that Boeing chose to end the Embraer deal. Embraer is still doing business, perhaps more slowly, but trading.  Boeing’s MAX equivalents to the A321neo family less so.

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Addison Schonland
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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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