The EC has approved a Dutch Government advance of €19.7 million of launch aid for an upgraded version of the Fokker 100 aircraft by NG Aircraft, formerly known as Rekkof (Fokker backwards). The question that must be asked is if there is really a market for an upgraded version of the Fokker 100 that ceased production in 1997 and was a stretch of the F-28 Fellowship that entered service in 1967.
Today’s marketplace is getting crowded in the 100 seat category – with today’s market leader, the Embraer 170-195 series – soon to be challenged by the Sukhoi Superjet, Mitsubishi Regional Jet, AVIC ARJ-21 and Bombardier CSeries, each of which are much more modern designs than the Fokker 100 and will without doubt be superior in both economics and passenger comfort.
In today’s market, a re-engined 1967 design can’t effectively compete with more modern aircraft – or can it? The 737 is that old – with two re-engining and upgrade programs during its history to keep it competitive with the 1988 vintage A320 family. But that’s about to change with the CSeries, which promises a step change in economics for narrow-bodies much like the 787 promises for wide-bodies – a major breakthrough that will leave older competitors economically obsolete.
We don’t believe the 737 can last forever — just look at the pleas to Boeing from Ryanair and Southwest looking for improved economics. But it takes strong innovation to finally put older models to bed permanently. The CSeries, and likely the rumored new larger model from Embarer, will take care of that.
In the meantime, it looks like the Dutch government is throwing good money after bad – a Fokker 100 remake is a bad idea, and doesn’t stand a ghost of a chance against more modern competition without a total new aircraft design. Does Europe need to rejoin the world of regional jet manufacturing? The market spoke otherwise once, and will likely do so again.
The famous invisible hand will decide if the airplane is needed. Rekkof is hoping introduction of BR725 engines combined with F100/F28’s relatively low weight and aircraft RVs will make the numbers work as an alternative to other current types. The market is not nearly so crowded as ’twas a few years back – and that without a U.S. turbine entry of any sort (above 19 seats), I think .
If one looks at it, at first glance, you seem to be right. On the other hand, we have the A320neo and the Boeing 737max. MRJ came back on its idea of using reinforced plastics. Use of this material just doesn’t scale down easily. Fokker airplanes have a life of 90000 cycles, and they have a very good reputation. The airframe was and is still very, very light. They were very innovative. Now the weight will come down with 10%. They will have winglets. And if they use a 51″ GTF engine, their statement has a point. It will be the cheapest plane, all over. It is known technology. Maybe they will even cross that barrier of 18% better economics. Even with a new design, it will be hard to beat. This is possible, because back then, they were ahead of their time. The Fokker even now, because of its cheap 2nd hand price and reasonable fuel consumption, one of the lowest accident rates, sturdy construction and quality is one of the best planes you can get for your money. Wait and see…
You make interesting points – we have heard Fokker was looking at the GTF. The MRJ size engine might work. But Rekkof is very quiet about their plans we are uncertain as to their success. We would appreciate the opportunity to speak with them. Feel free to pass on that message.
As far as I have heard, they are looking for a 51 inch fan version. This should still give a bypass ratio of around 8,5, significantly better than other alternatives. A too large fan creates a too dramatic change of the airflow over the wings and under the tail. That again would require design changes or re-certification, which they wish to avoid.
“But Rekkof is very quiet about their plans we are uncertain as to their success. ”
It’s their policy to keep a low profile… until the technology demonstrator is ready. So we’ll just have to wait until then I guess.
I have discovered that the plane is renamed the F120 NG now, since it will be able to seat 120 passengers, and that indeed the P&W GTF engine was chosen.
see http://www.ngaircraft.com
Dispite some earlier rumours this project seems to have moved into another phase.
It might be in the intrest of both Embraer and NGA to join their efforts.
NGA offers a plane with a 22% improvement in fuel burn, proven technologies and a study that is 95% complete. The design also complies with previous statements of Embraer that it was looking at a new fuselage wit higher width for 3 abreast, different wings and that has slightly more capacity than the A195. Its design also offers potential for a stretch as well as a shrink version. Joining the efforts could significantly reduce risks and costs for both companies, and might speed up entry into service. NGA already had planned significant manufacturing capabilities in Brasil. Knowing that this design will probably only last until the next generation of engines is available, which will need a completely new design, this would be a step to consider.