With news out this morning, Embraer’s EVE program took another big win.  United Airlines has a $15 million investment and a conditional purchase agreement for 200 four-seat electric aircraft plus 200 options. 

This deal pushes United Airlines to the top eVTOL customer, pushing Avolon to #2. In August, United paid a $10 million deposit to Archer for 100 Maker eVTOLs. Embraer, on the other hand, at more than double its next rival in terms of commitments, with 2,025 EVE commitments to date.  EVE has another 200 options on the books.

Embraer’s early focus and adoption of eVTOL as a line of business is proving to be astute.  If one looks at the other aircraft OEMs, they all dipped their toes in.  But there’s not much news since. Embraer on the other hand is building a solid lead.  This lead is driven by customer adoption and rising confidence. After all, look at the OEMs.  Which one has ever certified a commercial aircraft? Only Embraer.

Another interesting aspect of the eVTOL market is the ratio of commitments to options.  In 2021 we saw a ratio of 22% options to commitments and for 2022 YTD the ratio is 13.4%.  This could be a sign of rising confidence among operators. Speaking of operators, airlines account for 48% of the deals announced. Some OEMs have not provided details of some deals, so our data might be slightly understated.

Here’s our updated model for you to review.

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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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