Premium #343 – US domestic flight times are changing, and not getting better

The geography of the US is not changing. Cities remain the distance apart. Yet we are seeing a steady rise in a number of minutes airlines need to connect these cities. Take a look at the following chart. We used the US DoT On-Time database for this analysis. We took the overall averages for each month; combining millions of data points. On the left, we have the time airlines post in the CRS systems. On the right is the actual time to complete the flights. The two charts show the kind of symmetry one would expect. But notice from the Y-axis; the CRS times are slightly higher. Airlines pad their schedules - a well-established fact. But what the curves show is that between 2010, 2015 and the first half of 2017, the total times have risen. And not by a little. The next chart shows the difference between the CRS and Actual times for these periods. It is apparent that there is no pattern - flights are just taking longer. In 2010 the annual average difference was 3.9 minutes. By 2015 it had risen to 4.7 minutes and through the first half of 2017, it was at 4.9 minutes. This extra time could mean airlines are flying slower to save fuel burn. This makes sense during periods of high fuel prices, like 2010. During that era, fuel accounted for about 40% of operational costs. But by 2015 prices were falling. Despite a slight rise since then, fuel prices are much lower in 2017 than in 2010. Today the largest operational cost is labor. Consequently, an airline would want to get from A to B as quickly (but efficiently) as possible to keep costs low. Airline economic efficiency is mainly about managing costs since revenues are market driven. Being the lowest cost producer is the Golden Fleece of the industry. Consider that an "airline minute" is worth about $150. Where do airline minutes pile up? The data source defines four areas which seem account for a significant operational time delay opportunities. These areas are in ground ops. As we can see there has been a steady increase in the amount of time airlines have using to get aircraft into the air and then back to a gate. Taxi in seems to be the least affected. But the other three items have seen larger increases. In the US airport capacity has to be a rising factor in flight time growth. There appear to be too few runways and gates and these are likely to be driving the rising ground ops times. The Bottom Line: Passengers fly to get from point A to point B faster than any other transportation mode. Faster is better, and not only reduces cost, but can also command a premium from high yield business travelers. But the industry seems to be regressing, a worrisome trend.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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