Embraer has not made a firm decision yet on which version of the new turboprop it will bring to the market first: the 70-seater or the bigger 90-seater. The airframer is continuing its market research that includes discussions with airlines about their preferences, although the two TPs should enter service not long after another in 2028. Crucial will be how pilot shortages in the key US market will be solved. Embraer still unsure which turboprop version to launch first. During this week's Media Day presentations at the main factory in Brazil, Embraer Commercial Aviation CEO Arjan Meijer provided an update on the turboprop. The 90-seater is seen as the model suited to most markets whereas the 70-seater would be targeted for the crucial US market, specifically when it is configured as a 50-seat with a dual-class cabin layout. “We have several customer discussions and we get pushed in both directions, so we are in the process of giving it a very good thought”, Meijer said. Senior Vice President of Engineering, Luis Carlos Affonso, said earlier during the Media Days that a decision on which version will come first will be market-driven: “It hasn’t been decided yet.” When Embraer started exploring iterations for a new turboprop some six years ago, it seemed a no-brainer that with the huge potential in the US, the 70-seater would be the first version. The airframer noted strong interest from US regional carriers, despite the fact that turboprops aren’t very popular with the traveling public as they are perceived as old-fashioned and noisy. That’s something Embraer wants to correct with an advanced design that sets new standards on comfort, costs, sustainability, and noise levels. But in the post-Covid world, particularly in the US again, a new factor has come into play: pilot shortages. Many regional airlines currently face this problem. The (early) retirement under attractive incentives of thousands of pilots with legacy carriers and other airlines in the two years since the start of the pandemic has resulted in significant understaffing. Now that air travel is recovering quickly, all major airlines are hiring. It has resulted in a mass transition of younger pilots from regional subsidiaries to the mainline carriers. Pilot shortages affect TP business case Many regionals like Alaska Airlines’ Horizon Air and SkyWest that operate on behalf of United and Delta, or American have been forced to reduce or even suspend services to local airports. This problem is affecting Embraer in more than one way. First, numerous E-jets have been parked as there are insufficient numbers of pilots to fly them all. Second, this situation could affect deliveries of new E-jets to US airlines. And there are plenty of them in production right now. During our visit to Embraer’s Sao Jose dos Campos main production facilities, all aircraft that we saw except four were for Delta Airlines, American Airlines, and Alaska Airlines. As Meijer explained, Embraer has a 68 percent market share in the regional jet segment in the US, with the E175 operating at 98 percent utilization. “Embraer is very focused on this issue. Fortunately, there are a lot of powers trying to find a solution. For example, a few weeks ago, Republic Airways proposed an alternative for compliance with the request number of flight hours for co-pilots of around 750 hours instead of the current 1.500, but still train pilots to the same or even better safety level”, said Meijer. “We believe this problem will get solved over the next couple of years, but it will be a challenge. In the short-term, we don’t see an impact on Embraer but in the next couple of years, we may see some reduced sales for the E1-family. But with the interest from the market, we are expecting to build more E2s going forward.” Without a solution for the pilot shortages in the US, Meijer admits that this issue could be affecting the business case of the turboprop too, potentially making airlines reluctant to commit to the new type yet. “Yes, there is an issue today with pilot shortages. But there is also a big issue in the US with smaller, secondary cities that are losing connectivity. If this trend continues, we are going to see a lot of places losing aviation connectivity. It is a problem that needs to be solved because America can not accept it to happen in the long run. The TP is expected to come to the market in 2028 and what we are consistently hearing is that, by then, this problem will be solved. We will need this aircraft, especially for the US market. The 70-seat turboprop with a 50-seat configuration would be a great aircraft in a three-class layout to replace the 50-seater jets. There are a lot of 50-seater jets out there, including our own ERJ135s, that are getting to 20-25 years old that need replacement.” Arjan Meijer is showing a slide with a picture of the seven-blade propeller of the turboprop in the wind tunnel. (Richard Schuurman) Wind tunnel tests Meijer and Affonso both stated that the design of the turboprop and its specifications are advancing well. For a few months now, Embraer is busy in the wind tunnel to confirm the performance and configuration, independent of the engine type that Embraer will select. The tests have taken a bit longer, Meijer confirmed, because Embraer changed the design from wing-mounted to tail-mounted engines. In his presentation, Meijer showed a picture of the seven-blade propeller in the wind tunnel. A model of the complete aircraft with the aft-mounted propellers is about to be tested, with the trials set to be completed in August. They are done far away from Brazil: Embraer uses the German-Dutch wind tunnel in Marknesse in The Netherlands, which in the past has been used by Airbus for numerous models and also by COMAC for the C919. But the engine selection itself is still open. As reported earlier by AirInsight, Rolls-Royce has submitted a proposal to Embraer for the turboprop, as have Pratt & Whitney and General Electric. The Brazilians are taking their time to study the proposals, which has resulted in a delay of the original schedule. Instead of freezing the design configuration and launching the aircraft in 2022, this has slipped. “This year, we want to make a decision on the engine and we hope to launch the program around early to mid-2023”, Meijer said. “From then, detailed designing and manufacturing will follow, with certification and entry into service around early 2028. (…) Normally when you launch, you want to have some customers on board. In order to do that, we need to be clear about what the engine is going to be.” Conventional engine technology The CEO was unwilling to share further details about the offers that the engine makers have made to Embraer. Rolls-Royce, currently not active in the turboprop market for commercial aircraft, will have offered something new. P&W and GE can offer both derivative and new engine designs. Arjan Meijer and Luis Carlos Affonso both stated during the Media Days that the time schedule for the turboprop doesn’t match with the availability of disruptive engine technologies, either hybrid-electric or hydrogen. “When you look at our technology roadmap, you clearly see that we don’t believe that the hybrid-electric applications of the hydrogen will be match-fit for the 70 to 90-seat segment. We have had discussions with the OEMs and at this point, we strongly believe that launching a turboprop with a conventional engine will be the best solution for many years to come before new technology will come to the market”, said Meijer. Embraer wants to mature this technology first in its Energia program that includes four concepts of electric, hybrid-electric, and hydrogen aircraft, but it will take until 2030 to 2040 to bring these technologies to market-ready programs. “There are a lot of expectations in the market, but for our platform, we need something that is here today and that we know can do the job. And that’s a conventional engine for now, but as advanced as is possible. And then there is of course a trade-off between price, fuel burn, maintenance costs, and reliability. We take all this into account and select the best engine for our turboprop. Selecting an engine is a major exercise, you don’t want to rush that to the market. We just buy a bit more time to do it.” Luis Carlos Affonso, Senior Vice President of Engineering at Embraer. (Richard Schuurman) Affonso said: “We are still discussing with the engine manufacturers to understand when you compare a turboprop with another turboprop what the advantages could be. (…) What we are asking from them? First, for years, we haven’t seen a modern generation turboprop engine, so there is an opportunity there in terms of new materials, new aerodynamics, and all that. So we ask how efficient and modern an engine they can offer, also in terms of fuel efficiency and maintenance costs. The second part is the new technologies that are arising on hybrid and hydrogen: what are their views for now and for the future? That’s why we changed the design to aft-mounted engines, so it could be adapted to innovative technologies like hydrogen. So far, we think there is a window of opportunity for a conventional engine in the power-class that could then, maybe after fifteen years, evolve into a powerplant that would use new technologies.” So the first TP will have engines that are compatible with 100 percent sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), but they will be of a conventional design albeit with the latest available technology. The disruptive technologies could become available in what Embraer calls the turboprop 2.0. While General Electric and Safran are looking at the open rotor concept in their RISE technology program, Embraer is not convinced it is what the TP needs, Luis Carlos Affonso said. It is faster than a conventional turboprop, “but if it goes fast, it uses more fuel. If you try to design a turboprop that flies like a jet, you end up in the middle with a product that isn’t good. A turboprop needs to fit well in the terminal areas at airports and be compatible with the air traffic flow, otherwise, they are diverted and you lose time and your advantage. But because the stage lengths are short, speed doesn’t make a big difference. If you want to have a fast turboprop, then you need more engine power. There were airplanes designed like that and they weren’t successful, so we don’t want to make the same mistake.” Comparing the TP with the ATR Meijer shared a few more details of how the new turboprop will compare to the ATR 72-600, currently the only turboprop aircraft in production in the Western market (De Havilland Canada has suspended production of the Dash 8-400). The Embraer TP 90-seater will have 15 percent lower operating costs per seat, offer 20 percent more seats, fly 20 percent faster, and have a 15 percent lower fuel burn/emissions. “This is turboprop versus turboprop, but we also look at the 50-seat jet operations in the US. If you compare jets to turboprops, the sustainability item becomes even bigger with a 20-25 percent improvement in fuel burn”, Meijer explained. The cabin, which has the same cross-section as that of the E2-family, offers 10 percent more space. Also of importance to Embraer: the aircraft should offer customers three times better operational reliability, resulting in fewer schedule disruptions. Also yet to be concluded is the selection of one or more partners. Meijer has said before that Embraer wants to do the TP with others on different levels (strategic, industrial, suppliers), but he remains tight-lipped about the extent of that: “It is happening as we speak, but I can’t speak about individual partners we are talking with but we have shared that we are talking with partners in India and in Asian countries. There are several activities on this front.” On one thing, Embraer will take a page from ATR’s book: it will also be offering a short take-off and landing version of the new aircraft. Luis Carlos Affonso said this is crucial if the airframer wants to conquer market share in Asia and The Pacific, where airlines operate on remote airfields with short runways. Asked about his thoughts on ATR’s recently unveiled EVO-version with hybrid-electric and potentially hydrogen technology, Meijer repeated that the technology needs to be mature to reduce operational risks: “A 70 to 90 seater aircraft sounds like a small aircraft, but it is a lot of weight you have to get off the ground.” Affonso remarked that the EVO is still a 40-year-old design that gets only limited updates, while Meijer said that the new hybrid-electric technology needs time to mature. E2 fortunes With 400+ firm orders and purchase rights, Embraer is happy with how the market is accepting the E2-family, said Meijer. Since the entry into service of the first E190-E2 in 2018 with Wideroe, 52 E2s have been delivered, operating at 99.47 percent schedule reliability in the last twelve months, and a 99.2 percent completion rate. “What we promised our customers on reliability is visible with the airlines around the globe”, says Meijer. The E195-E2 has become the best-selling model, with 201 firm orders and 166 options at the end of March, many ordered by lessors. During our visit, we saw one E195-E2 in assembly for Air Peace, plus the first one for Canadian airline Porter that was almost complete. A third one for KLM was doing its flight tests and will be delivered to KLM Cityhopper soon as the twelfth E195-E2. But the picture for the E190-E2 is less bright: of the twenty on firm order, only three remain to be delivered. This includes one for Congo Airways that was parked in full livery on the apron. The twelfth Embraer E195-E2 for KLM Cityhopper in the hangar of the flight test team at Sao Jose dos Campos, still with Brazilian registration. (Richard Schuurman) But the E175-E2, the smallest version of the family, has failed to get any orders as it is the subject of the scope clause debate that has been ongoing for almost a decade now. The type’s Maximum Take-Off Weight is too high to fall within the limits of the scope clause, with pilot union ALPA refusing to give in. Embraer has paused development and certification of the E175-E2 for three years and can only hope that a solution is found. “For now, we don’t believe there is going to be a meaningful change in the next three years. But having said that, we know that sustainability is to play a big role, we know the E175-E2 offers a significant sustainability benefit but is just a little bit heavier, so we do believe that there will be good arguments. But I don’t have a crystal ball.” The sole prototype was seen in a hangar at the Gaviao Peixoto production facility, with the starboard engine already removed and the other about to be. Embraer has been touring Southeast Asia recently with the E190-E2 ‘Tech shark’ and hopes to add a few new sales to the book. It has been less successful in Australia, with Qantas selecting the Airbus A220-300 over the E195-E2, although the Brazilian airframer claims that their aircraft has thirteen percent lower cost operating costs and three percent lower costs per seat than the Airbus. Only the costs per seat of the E190-E2 are two percent higher compared to the A220-100. Meijer was unwilling to share what Qantas said to him about the preference for the A220, but said: “The preference of Qantas to take the A220 has to do with the longer routes where they need range. We will keep in close contact with them for the regional segment.” He was quick to add that Qantas and Australia aren’t lost to Embraer, referring to the acquisition of Alliance by Qantas that operates a growing fleet of E1s.
