How the A321 became 2023’s most important commercial aircraft

Regular readers of this site know that we focus on the Middle of the Market (MoM) a lot. This focus is not just being opinionated. The data support the importance of focusing on the MoM segment. The eye-catching number that led to the title of this post is this: Through August 2023, the A321neo accounts for 24.8% of all new deliveries. About one in four new deliveries in 2023 was an A321neo. Using our daily delivery tracker, we have tracked new deliveries daily. We started the tracking in January 2021. Here are data points that support our focus on this segment. The single-aisle MoM segment has been hot from the start and is seeing steady growth. Nothing on the horizon will remove this segment from this growth. The OEM push that “upsizing” is “right-sizing” worked. Other circumstances have helped, of course. For example, the global pilot shortage and rapid return of air travel demand means airlines need larger aircraft to move the traffic with a given pilot pool. Fleet decisions are long-term choices. It appears that lessors and airlines, looking as far into the future as possible, see no pilot supply increase. They also see traffic doing what it always has done after a shock: it recovers. Air travel seemingly has a relatively inelastic demand. Once the travel bug bites, you’re infected forever. But why the focus on MoM, specifically the single-aisle? It appears the flexibility of the aircraft offers relatively low risk. New operators like SAS and TAP are using the aircraft across the Atlantic. If the 787 proved itself as a “hub buster,” the MoM in the form of the A321 is following that same trajectory. The flexibility these aircraft offer is proving a winning formula. The size of the single-aisle MoM is not seen at Airbus. Boeing’s second-best-selling MAX model is the MAX 10. Just over 1,000 are accounted for; Boeing does not offer model details, and several of the ~1,600 unidentified orders may yet be switched to MAX 10. The following table lists single-aisle delivery by model through August 2023 (plus one delivery already came through on September 1). The A321neo is way ahead, especially if one compares the closet Boeing, the MAX 9. This week, Airbus announced its investment in Hamburg to add capacity to its A321XLR FAL. This decision is necessary to protect the A321 franchise. Boeing will build its MAX 10 at Everett – the first 737 not built at Renton. Both OEMs are reading the same tea leaves – this is the segment to focus on. The history we have tracked is short, and the fluctuation reflects this. But even doing a simple mathematical forecast (99% CI, no seasonality) guides to single-aisle deliveries being ~40% MoM. Our confidence is based on the continuation of A321 deliveries at current rates, plus what we can expect when the MAX 10 starts deliveries. Bottom Line We continue to posit that this segment will be the most important in commercial aviation for some time. Even when the MAX 10 starts deliveries, it will be a half-decade behind the A321neo. Will Boeing tweak the MAX 10 into variants like Airbus has the A321? Boeing has a history of relentlessly tweaking the 737 before the MAX. The MAX has an unfortunate history that it is overcoming. Boeing will probably focus on the MAX production rate to blunt Airbus’ advantage. Boeing has a steep hill to climb. 2023 looks like the year of the A321neo.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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