In a quick review of the market, we can see how the engine market has grown in sympathy with the demand for commercial aircraft.  In the first chart, we show the national origin of the engines.  The numbers for Canada jump in 2009 because our data source added turboprops from that period.  The overall market grew from nearly 14,000 engines in 2000 to close to 27,000 engines by 2016 – a growth of over 92%.

If we break down the engine data by each engine maker we get the following busy chart.  By far the most impressive growth has come from CFM, which went from ~3,600 engines to ~10,750.  The chart is busy because many OEMs share projects or have subsidiaries.

Cleaning up and categorizing the data into specific OEMs, we get the following cleaner chart.  Here we show market share.  The CFM performance now stands out and demonstrates just how big its role in the industry has become.  Supplying the A320 family and being exclusive on the 737 has provided tremendous benefits.   Compared to this, look at UTC which had well over a third of the market in 2000 and now has shrunk to just over a quarter.  This offers a guide as to how crucial the GTF is to the future of the company.  It is no wonder that UTC is deploying so much of its aero engine capital to ensure the success of that program.  Fortunately, it has some superb products, like the PT-6 and PW800, to provide such support.

Rolls-Royce also saw a market share shrink, but a much smaller one.  Tying itself to the A330 and A350 program should ensure growth again.  But with a focus on widebody aircraft, Rolls-Royce missed out on the explosive growth in the single-aisle segment.  On the other hand, GE focused on Boeing’s 777 and 787 programs, which saw high growth over the period.  Being a partner in CFM has obviously helped, too.  It will be interesting to see if the 777X sells anything like the earlier models.  If it does not, GE will need to revisit its strategy.  But with a pending 797 to come, GE does have an advantage of being selected as an engine option given its close relationship with Boeing.  P&W and Rolls-Royce will likely battle to be the other option.

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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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